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RIO vs. VALE: Which Global Mining Powerhouse is the Better Buy Now?
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Key Takeaways
Rio Tinto highlights Pilbara strength, copper ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi and expanding lithium assets.
Vale posts rising iron ore output, expands Energy Transition Metals and advances major copper projects.
Earnings estimates for RIO and VALE have risen, with diverging growth expectations for 2025 and 2026.
Rio Tinto Group (RIO - Free Report) and Vale S.A. (VALE - Free Report) are among the world’s largest iron ore producers and diversified miners, making them direct competitors in the global metals and mining sector. Both companies are positioned to benefit as infrastructure investment picks up worldwide and long-term demand grows for steel, copper, lithium, nickel, and other minerals essential for clean energy technologies.
Headquartered in London, UK, Rio Tinto operates across 35 countries with a portfolio including iron ore, copper, aluminum and a range of other minerals. The company is focusing on new projects that can support the energy transition, currently exploring seven commodities in 17 countries. RIO has a market capitalization of $118 billion.
Rio De Janeiro, Brazil-based Vale has a presence across 20 countries with a market capitalization of $53.5 billion. Along with iron ore, the company produces nickel, copper and cobalt, as well as by-products, such as gold, silver, platinum group metals, and other precious metals.
For investors interested in this space, let's analyze which stock is better positioned for upside, Rio Tinto or Vale. A closer look at their fundamentals, growth drivers and key risks can offer clarity.
The Case for Rio Tinto
Rio Tinto is a global diversified miner with leading positions in iron ore, copper and aluminum. Its flagship Pilbara operations in Western Australia continue to deliver some of the highest margins in the industry thanks to its scale, automation and logistics integration. The company continues to steadily increase output at Gudai-Darri, its most advanced automated iron ore mine, improving product quality and lowering unit costs.
Copper is a major pillar of Rio’s long-term growth strategy. The company continues to invest heavily in Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, one of the world’s largest known copper and gold deposits. Once the underground phase is fully ramped up, Oyu Tolgoi is expected to be the fourth-largest copper mine globally, providing multi-decade production.
Rio Tinto is working on building its lithium portfolio to capitalize on the rising demand for batteries and electric vehicles. The acquisition of Arcadium Lithium (Rio Tinto Lithium) earlier this year establishes Rio Tinto as a global leader in the supply of energy transition materials and a major lithium producer. It currently boasts one of the world’s largest lithium resource bases. Rio Tinto Lithium aims to grow the capacity of its Tier 1 assets to more than 200 thousand tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2028.
Rio Tinto reported iron ore shipments from Pilbara (on a 100% basis) of 84.3 million tons (Mt) for the third quarter of 2025. It was flat year over year but marked a 6% sequential rise. Despite major maintenance and infrastructure work, this marked Pilbara’s second-highest third-quarter performance since 2019. Production was also stable year over year at 84.1 MT (on a 100% basis). Gudai-Darri achieved its highest-ever quarterly production in the quarter, with a 51 Mtpa run rate.
Rio Tinto expects Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) to be at the lower end of 323-338 Mt. The range indicated a year-over-year decline of 2% to growth of 3%. The lowered guidance reflects the impact of cyclones in the first quarter. Also, Pilbara iron ore guidance remains subject to the timing of approvals for planned mining areas and heritage clearances.
Rio Tinto expects copper production to come in near the high end of its stated range of 780-850 kt for 2025, attributed to a strong ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi. The company reported total copper production (mined and refined) of 792.6 kt in 2024.
Its ongoing capital investment has delivered four consecutive years of production growth. The company remains on track to deliver on its 3% CAGR production target over 2024-2033.
The Case for Vale
Vale is the world’s largest producer of iron ore and iron ore pellets. The company is known for its high-grade ore, which gives it an advantage as the steel industry decarbonizes. Vale also operates a sizable base metals business, particularly in nickel and copper, and is pursuing a strategy to unlock the full value of these assets. Vale produced 94.4 MT of iron ore in the third quarter, 3.8% higher than the year-ago quarter. This was driven by record output at the S11D mine. Sales volumes were reported at 86 MT, up 5%.
VALE expects iron ore production in 2025 to range between 325 MT and 335 MT. Vale expects to produce copper in the range of 340-370 kt.
Vale has plans to increase its production capacity to 340-360 MT in 2026 and 360 Mt by 2030. The Vargem Grande 1 project and the Capanema Maximization project are expected to play a key role in attaining these targets. Other approved projects are Compact Crushing at S11D (capacity: 50 Mtpy, start-up in the second half of 2026) and Serra Sul (capacity: 20 Mtpy, start-up in the second half of 2026).
Vale is also heavily investing in growing the Energy Transition Metals business. In December 2024, the company completed Voisey’s Bay Mine Expansion project, transitioning from open-pit to underground mining. The two underground mines — Reid Brook and Eastern Deeps — will deliver ore for processing at VALE’s Long Harbour refinery, one of the lowest-emission nickel processing plants in the world. The project’s production capacity is around 45 ktpy of nickel, 20 ktpy of copper and 2.6 ktpy of cobalt as by-products. Full ramp-up is expected by the second half of 2026.
Vale expects copper output to be in the band of 340-370 kt for 2025. Copper output is expected to reach 420-500 kt by 2030, aided by the Bacaba and Alemão projects. The company secured the preliminary license for the Bacaba project in June 2025. The project will extend the life of the Sossego Mining Complex, contributing an average annual copper output of around 50 ktpy over an eight-year mine life. Production is expected to start in the first half of 2028. Vale has plans to hit 700 kt levels by 2035, primarily through the accelerated development of assets in the North and South hubs in the Carajás region.
How do Estimates Compare for RIO & VALE?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rio Tinto’s 2025 earnings indicate a year-over-year drop of 5.7%. The estimate for earnings for 2026 is $7.19 per share, projecting 13.8% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both the earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 for RIO have moved up over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s 2025 earnings of $1.97 per share indicates year-over-year growth of 8.2%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s 2026 earnings is $1.94 per share, which projects a 1.27% dip.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both the EPS estimates for Vale for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 have been revised upward in the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Rio Tinto & Vale: Price Performance & Valuation
So far this year, Rio Tinto stock has appreciated 22.8% lagging Vale, which has gained 41%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RIO is trading at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 1.59X, while VALE’s forward sales multiple sits at 1.41X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
Rio Tinto and Vale both stand to benefit from rising long-term demand for steelmaking materials and energy transition metals. Rio Tinto offers greater diversification, stronger balance sheet stability and multi-decade copper and lithium growth. Vale has an edge given its high-grade iron ore as steelmakers seek cleaner inputs. Vale stands out in terms of price performance and cheaper valuation.
Image: Shutterstock
RIO vs. VALE: Which Global Mining Powerhouse is the Better Buy Now?
Key Takeaways
Rio Tinto Group (RIO - Free Report) and Vale S.A. (VALE - Free Report) are among the world’s largest iron ore producers and diversified miners, making them direct competitors in the global metals and mining sector. Both companies are positioned to benefit as infrastructure investment picks up worldwide and long-term demand grows for steel, copper, lithium, nickel, and other minerals essential for clean energy technologies.
Headquartered in London, UK, Rio Tinto operates across 35 countries with a portfolio including iron ore, copper, aluminum and a range of other minerals. The company is focusing on new projects that can support the energy transition, currently exploring seven commodities in 17 countries. RIO has a market capitalization of $118 billion.
Rio De Janeiro, Brazil-based Vale has a presence across 20 countries with a market capitalization of $53.5 billion. Along with iron ore, the company produces nickel, copper and cobalt, as well as by-products, such as gold, silver, platinum group metals, and other precious metals.
For investors interested in this space, let's analyze which stock is better positioned for upside, Rio Tinto or Vale. A closer look at their fundamentals, growth drivers and key risks can offer clarity.
The Case for Rio Tinto
Rio Tinto is a global diversified miner with leading positions in iron ore, copper and aluminum. Its flagship Pilbara operations in Western Australia continue to deliver some of the highest margins in the industry thanks to its scale, automation and logistics integration. The company continues to steadily increase output at Gudai-Darri, its most advanced automated iron ore mine, improving product quality and lowering unit costs.
Copper is a major pillar of Rio’s long-term growth strategy. The company continues to invest heavily in Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, one of the world’s largest known copper and gold deposits. Once the underground phase is fully ramped up, Oyu Tolgoi is expected to be the fourth-largest copper mine globally, providing multi-decade production.
Rio Tinto is working on building its lithium portfolio to capitalize on the rising demand for batteries and electric vehicles. The acquisition of Arcadium Lithium (Rio Tinto Lithium) earlier this year establishes Rio Tinto as a global leader in the supply of energy transition materials and a major lithium producer. It currently boasts one of the world’s largest lithium resource bases. Rio Tinto Lithium aims to grow the capacity of its Tier 1 assets to more than 200 thousand tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2028.
Rio Tinto reported iron ore shipments from Pilbara (on a 100% basis) of 84.3 million tons (Mt) for the third quarter of 2025. It was flat year over year but marked a 6% sequential rise. Despite major maintenance and infrastructure work, this marked Pilbara’s second-highest third-quarter performance since 2019. Production was also stable year over year at 84.1 MT (on a 100% basis). Gudai-Darri achieved its highest-ever quarterly production in the quarter, with a 51 Mtpa run rate.
Rio Tinto expects Pilbara iron ore shipments (100% basis) to be at the lower end of 323-338 Mt. The range indicated a year-over-year decline of 2% to growth of 3%. The lowered guidance reflects the impact of cyclones in the first quarter. Also, Pilbara iron ore guidance remains subject to the timing of approvals for planned mining areas and heritage clearances.
Rio Tinto expects copper production to come in near the high end of its stated range of 780-850 kt for 2025, attributed to a strong ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi. The company reported total copper production (mined and refined) of 792.6 kt in 2024.
Its ongoing capital investment has delivered four consecutive years of production growth. The company remains on track to deliver on its 3% CAGR production target over 2024-2033.
The Case for Vale
Vale is the world’s largest producer of iron ore and iron ore pellets. The company is known for its high-grade ore, which gives it an advantage as the steel industry decarbonizes. Vale also operates a sizable base metals business, particularly in nickel and copper, and is pursuing a strategy to unlock the full value of these assets.
Vale produced 94.4 MT of iron ore in the third quarter, 3.8% higher than the year-ago quarter. This was driven by record output at the S11D mine. Sales volumes were reported at 86 MT, up 5%.
VALE expects iron ore production in 2025 to range between 325 MT and 335 MT. Vale expects to produce copper in the range of 340-370 kt.
Vale has plans to increase its production capacity to 340-360 MT in 2026 and 360 Mt by 2030. The Vargem Grande 1 project and the Capanema Maximization project are expected to play a key role in attaining these targets. Other approved projects are Compact Crushing at S11D (capacity: 50 Mtpy, start-up in the second half of 2026) and Serra Sul (capacity: 20 Mtpy, start-up in the second half of 2026).
Vale is also heavily investing in growing the Energy Transition Metals business. In December 2024, the company completed Voisey’s Bay Mine Expansion project, transitioning from open-pit to underground mining. The two underground mines — Reid Brook and Eastern Deeps — will deliver ore for processing at VALE’s Long Harbour refinery, one of the lowest-emission nickel processing plants in the world. The project’s production capacity is around 45 ktpy of nickel, 20 ktpy of copper and 2.6 ktpy of cobalt as by-products. Full ramp-up is expected by the second half of 2026.
Vale expects copper output to be in the band of 340-370 kt for 2025. Copper output is expected to reach 420-500 kt by 2030, aided by the Bacaba and Alemão projects. The company secured the preliminary license for the Bacaba project in June 2025. The project will extend the life of the Sossego Mining Complex, contributing an average annual copper output of around 50 ktpy over an eight-year mine life. Production is expected to start in the first half of 2028. Vale has plans to hit 700 kt levels by 2035, primarily through the accelerated development of assets in the North and South hubs in the Carajás region.
How do Estimates Compare for RIO & VALE?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rio Tinto’s 2025 earnings indicate a year-over-year drop of 5.7%. The estimate for earnings for 2026 is $7.19 per share, projecting 13.8% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both the earnings estimates for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 for RIO have moved up over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s 2025 earnings of $1.97 per share indicates year-over-year growth of 8.2%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s 2026 earnings is $1.94 per share, which projects a 1.27% dip.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Both the EPS estimates for Vale for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 have been revised upward in the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Rio Tinto & Vale: Price Performance & Valuation
So far this year, Rio Tinto stock has appreciated 22.8% lagging Vale, which has gained 41%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
RIO is trading at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 1.59X, while VALE’s forward sales multiple sits at 1.41X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
Rio Tinto and Vale both stand to benefit from rising long-term demand for steelmaking materials and energy transition metals. Rio Tinto offers greater diversification, stronger balance sheet stability and multi-decade copper and lithium growth. Vale has an edge given its high-grade iron ore as steelmakers seek cleaner inputs. Vale stands out in terms of price performance and cheaper valuation.
Rio Tinto currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) while Vale sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.